A Prediction of Information Systems and Computer Consciousness

In “Technology's Promise” by William Halal, one of his predictions is related to an “Age of Consciousness” about 2020 similar to the information age of today. Halal expects that the spiritual projections of consciousness will be accepted over the current trend to prove that there are physical roots of human consciousness. Halal presents arguments for both sides. The physical side has ever growing number of technologies in information processing, plus biological and psychological research about the brain and behavior. This research suggests the brain is no more than a computer model. As the technology for processing data continues to evolve, the physical model side predicts that computer processing will catch up to the capability of human processing, and contain a level of awareness likened to a human. These scientists equate the consciousness of the human mind to a creature with the data at high levels of intelligence where data is processed into decisions. These decisions form the basis for behaviors equating to human ‘free will’ and value/belief systems. The spiritual model recognizes a higher form of intelligence beyond the human brain, which transcends the physical, providing discernment capability, ‘free will’ leading behavior selection where values and choice are concerned.

Curiously, the ‘Computer Model’ camp prediction focuses on measured versus subjective analyses. From their perspective, everything can be measured. Their argument for quantification parallels the debate in natural sciences on the use of quantitative and qualitative analyses. Experimental research and problem areas where numbers are prevalent fall nicely into quantitative measures. However, current researchers in social sciences found human behavior and experience are more fitted to qualitative studies. The subject of choice is not so easily defined by genetic inheritance of values and beliefs. While non-human selection on instinct can be measured in this way, due to their predictability, human behavior in choices can have an infinite number of possibilities that no computer can store in a database.

Everyday people can predict on human behavior pattern.  Some of us are very predictable rarely changing how we go about our daily tasks. In down-the-road predictions, Sci-Fi writers offer their insights through their story lines. They use their knowledge of their today and imagine the ‘What if’s’ of the future and alternate environments. Perhaps, not so different from the recognized leading scientist of today, who predict five, 10,  20 years or more into the future. Of course these leading figures typically base their futures on current trends in technologies. Yet, how far are they from writers such as Gene Rodenberry, Star Trek series and movies, describing star travel, and food replicators, or Jules Verne, with undersea stories and around the world adventures before anyone thought they were possible. If one were to look at background of an Asimov or Clarke or Heinlein, their stories are sprinkled with their knowledge and experience of their time. Surprisingly, their images found future reality by the same ratios of our leading scientists and thinkers. The point is that, as discovered with chaos theory, the chances of a prediction about nature, man included, coming true are predicated on many forces, and events, changing the potential outcomes.

Factors that can effect Halal’s prediction of the Spirit Model accepted over the Computer Model of consciousness social, religious, and educational. The social and educational are interwoven. Sherden in “Future Sellers” notes that any prediction should be evaluated by knowledge. In this case Halal provides argument of both sides. To say that beliefs are genetically inherited and that the cells of body created the beliefs plus free will ignores the reality of a simple belief. For example, in the reality of Catholicism, a miracle is not just a body healing itself. Before a miracle is recognized by the Catholic Church a group of lawyers, doctors and other members of a team investigate. Their finds must determine that there is no way physically possible for an illness to be healed by man. Their investigations are very detailed, looking into every possibility, taking a year or more. The social forces in a cultural environment that believes the individual is the center of all things can narrow the scope of investigations. Seems that that man was the center of the universe thought came up once before? 

Human behavior in choices is not the same as animal instinct. Where instinct determines a path, and is predictable, the human can make choices in an instant that were never made before – all based on the circumstances and the environment of the moment. In the educational arena the traditional approach to classroom learning limits the creativity due to the emphasis on measured outcome as opposed to the ability to apply an accumulation of knowledge in a brand new situation. And, finally, data in a computer is mathematical. Fuzzy logic is close enough, but not perfect. Spiritual is recognized as higher order intelligence. Simply put in mathematical terms the spiritual nature encompasses the physical nature. In everyday math the Real number system is subset of complex numbers; in nature, which includes human behavior, the theory of chaos exists. The order seemingly on the surface belies the randomness at different levels.

William E. Halal (2007) Technology’s Promise

Foretelling the Future … Can anyone really predict the future?

1926 -- “To place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth – all that constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances”. 
(Lee de Forest - Search Quotes)

From Silent Film "Trip to the Moon"

Based off Jules Vern science fiction, a trip to 

the moon was a shot from a canon, 

very similar to a rifle on a grand scale. 

Of course stopping was a some what rough ride!

Neil Armstrong First Step on Moon

In 1969 Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon 

1936 -- "A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere." (Grace Murano)

White Sands First Successful Launch

...... 10 years later, White Sands the first successful launch of American-built rocket

1957 -- "Space travel is bunk." (Quoted Prediction)

 

SPUTNIK

----, Two weeks later, the Russian Sputnik went into orbit, October 4, 1957

APOLLO Launch

De Forest passed away 30 June 1961 just two months after Alan Shepard successfully ventured into space on a rocket.

… Perhaps, when making a prediction, one should never be absolute!

In 1987, James Gleick’s, Chaos: Making a New Science, spoke about the work of Benoit Mandelbrot in defining Fractal Geometry. A very visual mathematician, Fractal Geometry is descriptive, not analytical by definition. In the realm of complex mathematics, researchers found that fractals describe system after system found in nature that previous confounded description due their randomness. Each system had order to a certain point, at which time chaos occurred. Amazingly, the nature of turbulence, the unpredictability of weather and even the stock market’s rise and decline into fractal patterns. Before cell phones, the wired telephone system, yes, for some they were connected to the wall, had white noise that seemed inexplicable. Mandelbrot found that the white noise, pure random signal, followed a fractal pattern.

Woolfram Math World - Generated Fractal

What’s the point of all that fractal stuff?

Predicting, and forecasting, is only ordered to a point. In my studies of statistics, predicting something outside the data sample is not valid! Forecasting is going outside the sample space – the known world as it is today. Outside the known world forecasters base there ‘guess’, usually an educated guess on their knowledge base of the world around them. What they cannot see is the future. In that future there are forces that can change in their favor or take 42 years to set foot on the moon!

The force that ignited the forward thrust to putting a man on the moon was the inspiration of President Kennedy. His charisma set in motion financial, government, and social forces that, not only put a man on the moon, but a series of innovations for everyday life, such as Teflon and sticky notes.. Through the leadership of one man a structure was set up through the government, the financial means was provided plus contributions from corporate and academic innovations, and the social support open the doors of people ready to work long hours to see success to land a man on the moon. The technological advances were the result of combining technology experts for a common goal. Their interaction with the experience of pilots and aircraft manufactures fine tunes the space program. Some times, the thought of long gone technical minds of the past, and the science fictions writers start the dream somewhere on the planet. Sometimes just a little push gets the competition trying harder!

The weaknesses  of setting a man on the moon from a dream to reality was timing. The ideas were there, but the technology was not! The social beliefs of those time had a hard time excepting the earth was round! There certainly was not the financial or the technical know how to fly across the ocean without refueling until the mid 20th Century.

James Gleick, Chaos: Making a New Science

William A Sherden, The Fortune Sellers

Search Quotes - Lee De Forest Quotes

http://www.searchquotes.com/search/Lee%20De%20Forest/

Grace Murano - 15 Failed Predictions about the Future - New York Times

http://www.oddee.com/item_96635.aspx

Quoted Prediction - Web of Fate - Sir Harold Spencer Jones, 1957.  http://weboffate.com/prediction/Space-travel-is-bunk/7317/

Sputnik – US Air Force Public Domain

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Sputnik_1.jpg

Woolfram Math World - Generated Fractal

http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Fractal.html

White Sands First Successful Launch
http://www.theurbn.com/2012/02/being-wrong-failed-predictions/

Images of launches and Man setting foot on moon from NASA

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/index.html

Solutions to Complex Problems

Microsoft 'Idea' from Clip Art|

An individual can find a simple solution to problems, 

which change the way we do things. That innovative 

idea can evade discovery from many people. The 

answer, the innovation, often is staring them in their 

faces; one of those, ‘Why didn’t I think of that?” 

moments! Complex problem solutions are more 

effective solved pooling resources of more than 

one person.

Microsoft 'Idea' from Clip Art

Schreibman and Christakis discuss the structured design dialogue 

process (SDDP) in their paper The New Angora. The SDDP 

recognizes the multiple differences brought to the table by a group of people from various cultures and experiences. Through a structured process of gathering ideas, recognizing the inter-dependencies of potential solutions, and translating the terminology and conceptual understanding into a common language, a group can optimize a 

solution accepted by all. 

Christakis, A. The SDDP Process

SDDP is actually another hybrid of the Delphi Method; an interactive process gathering data, evaluating, taking another look and refining. The Delphi methods cycle to an accepted point of exhausted back and forth data and refining. The SDDP is more structured and facilitated to override the existing human flaws inherited through differences in language, culture, and experience. The SDDP makes a point of directly analyzing the differences caused by different individual thought processes, language specific to a culture, and knowledge and understanding molded through individuals’ life and education. Facilitation of the Delphi process was not originally set up to account for these differences; the Delphi process relies on group centered on a particular area of expertise. SDDP attempts to accommodate the interests of the group participating in the solution, and blend all participants into a common understanding. 

Organizational behaviorists determined several decades ago a limit to the number a manager, or a facilitator, or a teacher can appropriately manage in a group. The Delphi Methods recognized this fact with inputs from small to large groups. The New Media Consortium method utilizes the Internet, which the SDDP recognized, but with an open format of all members and a cadre of individual that rotate to referee the inputs and disseminate to all participants.

With experiences facilitators for subgroups in the SDDP the same factors of spread think and EPE come into to play although hidden in their subconscious. Educational systems and social cultural factors after years of built up experience are hard to eliminate. The forces are inherent in any innovative process.

Perhaps Sherden, in Future Sellers recommendation to weed out forecasts without the technological and trend base can provide a more sound approach to innovation. Sherden suggests empowering a group’s members, somewhat bounded by guiding principles. An open culture where information is shared offers an organizational climate that encourages the motivation to participate, and a sense of being an equal part of the group. To me, this sounds very similar to the way that the NMC determines their technology forecasts.

References

Christakis, A. The SDP Process

http://www.harnessingcollectivewisdom.com/sdp_process.html

Follett, K. P. (2007). New agora: new geometry of languaging and new technology of democracy: the structured design dialogue process. Int. Journal of Applied Systemic Studies, Vol. 1

Sherden, W. A. (1998). Fortune Sellers

Vigdor Schreibman and Alexander N. Christakis

New Agora: New Geometry of Languaging And New Technology of Democracy: The Structured Design Dialogue Process

Exploring innovative ideas!

Exploring the possibilities of what can be is part of every child’s imagination. A child is not burdened with how we are supposed to do something. Yet, the older many of us get, the more we tend to be set in our ways. We can easily fall into the, ‘this is the way we always do this thing!’ This could be called a ‘rut’, the ‘only’ way of doing something that can limit our imagination, our creativity? Yet, the accumulation of our ever growing experiences could, and should, open the mind to ‘what ifs?’ Sometimes, technology makes happen what seemed impossible, possible!

Necessity is the mother of invention (The Phrase Finder, 2012B)

The English version comes from William Horman in 1519 (The Phrase Finder, 2012B), who is credited with 'Mater artium necessitas', roughly translated, ‘Necessity is the mother of invention’. Rather than the word ‘necessity’, perhaps we might say, a better idea, or an improvement, or a solution to a problem ‘at hand’. Examples of everyday innovation can be found in experienced mechanics, field engineers, or a mother building on past experiences. Their experience tells them that there are times when a need can only be resolved through whatever means they have available to improve the situation, to create, to innovate. So, how can we, together, explore innovative ideas?

Two heads are better than one (The Phrase Finder, 2012a)

Did you ever hear a parent telling their children, ‘if we work together, we can get things done a lot faster?’ Turns out, fostering a collaborative effort goes back a few millenniums! One resource, the Old Testament scripture, Ecclesiastes 4:9, essentially says, two or more people supply more brain power to getting things done.

Innovation that changes the way we live is about future possibilities. What can we do to develop the thought process for innovation? Certainly, drawing from more than one individual; bringing together different experiences and knowledge. Each draws upon the others’ input. Education applies project based learning to encourage learning through collaboration. The ‘hands-on’ approach, as well as, the exchange of ideas provides a better solution, adds to individual experience and broader knowledge, and can animate learning toward improved retention. The Buck Institute for Education offers some videos and research about project based learning. Below is one of their videos.

Project Based Learning

Project based learning in the classroom requires a collaborative effort that presents a glimpse into real-world projects. The result of the questions and responses of the group build on each other toward an accepted outcome. Project based learning is one method encouraging the development of a capability to innovate.

For real world problems, a need to build a better understanding, determining an optimum solution, or the generation of ideas to forecasting future trends and new technologies the Delphi method, or a modification of the classic Delphi method is a process developed in the 1950’s. The characteristics comparing the original Delphi Method with one modification is charted below.

	Classical Delphi Method	Modified Nominal Group Technique
Origins
	1950’s	1971
	Estimation of military future needs	Consensus planning to prioritize
Characteristics
	Anonymity	Anonymity
	Iteration	Iteration
	Controlled Feedback	Group generates issues/ideas
	Analysis of Group	Phases: Large to small groups
	Qualitative & Quantitative	Semi-Quantitative
	Lit Review – Gap?	Review of subject area within boundary of that subject area
Membership	Area Expertise solicited	Participants of subject area
	Open collaboration	Closed collaboration
Size	Practicality	Population of subject area
Works well Improving       OR Developing	·         Understanding of problems ·         Opportunities ·         Solutions -------------------------------------------- ·         Forecasts	·         Change management ·         Evaluation ·         Brainstorming ·         Prioritizing

Comparison of Characteristics/differences between Classical Delphi & Modified Nominal Group Technique (NGT) (Dobbie et al., 2004; Skulmoski et al., 2007)

While the anonymity and iterative approach remain, membership can be subject matter inclusive, or subject area matter inclusive. The classic Delphi covers a broader scope of subject. And, the modified approach is more specific, i.e. evaluation and prioritization versus seeking opportunities or forecasting.

Would the Classic Delphi method be more applicable than the modifies method for dissertation research?

Going back to the thought that ‘two heads are better than one’, and realizing that everyone builds  a unique experience and  knowledge base, a method closer the classic Delphi Method would be optimum for dissertation research. Drawing from the doctoral faculty, the recognized expertise in the field of interest, collaboration with other doctoral students offers a more complete picture of the specific area of research. The collaborative inputs provide, seeing through ‘many eyes’ the problem area.

  The Delphi Method is just one way to Innovation

Innovation is seeing something in a different way; seeing a connection, a novel idea. Innovation comes from the ever growing accumulation of knowledge and experience. Something a day ago, or a year, or possibly ten years before may not trigger an innovative idea until one moment in time a new experience is added to the individual's base of knowledge. Yet, many individuals never seem to innovate and except what is in existence. Sir Kenneth Robinson makes his case for the current educational system based on assessing factual knowledge and measurement methodology that focuses on remembering those facts. Creativity tends to be squashed in the traditional melee of grades and student comparisons, as opposed to working toward each person's success based on that student.s abilities. Creativity is the ability to uncover the possibilities based on understanding, application of knowledge, evaluations and comparisons based on that knowledge, and then draw from these learning skills to draw out the what if's!

Synergy produced through group efforts can produce far greater results. Thus, the collaborative structure of the Delphi method draws from the 'expert' inputs to build better understand and better ideas. Modifications of the Delphi method work within a defined family of 'experts', who can be students, to produce synergistic effects concentrating on a specific subject. The concept of project based learning in education and organizational learning tries to develop the value of collaborative arrangement. In some societies the individual takes center stage, which can be a challenge to proving the value of collaboration that makes the Delphi and Delphi-like systems work. 

The individual is a key to any collaboration, since each contribution provides a different insight into a problem or evaluation. Yet, look around! Is there anything that we use or have today that we accomplished by ourselves. Albert Einsteins spent years reading and correcting patents. Thomas Edison without Tesla may not have had the physical products to market, Steve Jobs certainly had a marketing genius, but not without the technical support of Apple. These men developed large experience bases, understood how to apply those experiences, and by evaluating possible needs they used their creativity to innovate!

In any method of collaboration there are forces that can dampen the outcomes. From an ethical perspective, the ideas and discussion must be original. Of course, there are ideas and concepts from the past that their time is now! Yet, these ideas must be integrated into today's environment. Also, are all the potential voices the can contribute available and brought into the circle of innovative discussions? The Internet provide an open format for many ideas and information. Without a form of peer review how valid is the data. Taking things out of contexts, possibly leaving a single piece of information can change the results. Just as in any qualitative and qualitative analyses, the boundaries, set by participants, or other limiting factors, the forecasts should be within the set of parameters that the analyses were focused on. This should not be a limitation in the forecast, since that forecast is based on knowledge and experience of today.

The strengths are social in nature. Collaborative discourse facilitated with a creation of an open format encourage maximum participation can bring about an optimal solution. The technological forces are strong in the emerging technologies that piggyback on one another and sprout new ideas, with innovations such as the multiple person touch surfaces and the :"Sixth Sense" innovation that brought the multiple touch surface to any surface. 

"What the mind of man can conceive and believe, It can achieve." Napolean Hill from Quote World.org

References:

Dobbie, A, Rhodes, M, Tysinger, J.W., and Freeman, J. (2004). Using a Modified Nominal Group Technique as a Curriculum Evaluation Tool, Core Concepts in Family Medicine Education, Vol. 36, No. 6

http://www.stfm.org/fmhub/fm2004/June/Alison402.pdf

Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., and Jennifer Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi Method for Graduate Research, Journal of Information Technology Education, Vol. 6

http://fepto.eu/storage/files/articole/Delphi%20method%20for%20Graduiate%20research.pdf

The Phrase Finder (2012a)

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/two-heads-are-better-than-one.html

The Phrase Finder (2012b)

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/necessity-is-the-mother-of-invention.html