Showing posts with label Delphi Method. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Delphi Method. Show all posts

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Solutions to Complex Problems





Inspiration
Microsoft 'Idea' from Clip Art|
An individual can find a simple solution to problems, 
which change the way we do things. That innovative 
idea can evade discovery from many people. The 
answer, the innovation, often is staring them in their 
faces; one of those, ‘Why didn’t I think of that?” 
moments! Complex problem solutions are more 
effective solved pooling resources of more than 
one person.



Innovation Through Collaboration
Microsoft 'Idea' from Clip Art

Schreibman and Christakis discuss the structured design dialogue 
process (SDDP) in their paper The New Angora. The SDDP 
recognizes the multiple differences brought to the table by a group of people from various cultures and experiences. Through a structured process of gathering ideas, recognizing the inter-dependencies of potential solutions, and translating the terminology and conceptual understanding into a common language, a group can optimize a 
solution accepted by all. 


Christakis, A. The SDDP Process


SDDP is actually another hybrid of the Delphi Method; an interactive process gathering data, evaluating, taking another look and refining. The Delphi methods cycle to an accepted point of exhausted back and forth data and refining. The SDDP is more structured and facilitated to override the existing human flaws inherited through differences in language, culture, and experience. The SDDP makes a point of directly analyzing the differences caused by different individual thought processes, language specific to a culture, and knowledge and understanding molded through individuals’ life and education. Facilitation of the Delphi process was not originally set up to account for these differences; the Delphi process relies on group centered on a particular area of expertise. SDDP attempts to accommodate the interests of the group participating in the solution, and blend all participants into a common understanding. 

Organizational behaviorists determined several decades ago a limit to the number a manager, or a facilitator, or a teacher can appropriately manage in a group. The Delphi Methods recognized this fact with inputs from small to large groups. The New Media Consortium method utilizes the Internet, which the SDDP recognized, but with an open format of all members and a cadre of individual that rotate to referee the inputs and disseminate to all participants.

With experiences facilitators for subgroups in the SDDP the same factors of spread think and EPE come into to play although hidden in their subconscious. Educational systems and social cultural factors after years of built up experience are hard to eliminate. The forces are inherent in any innovative process.

Perhaps Sherden, in Future Sellers recommendation to weed out forecasts without the technological and trend base can provide a more sound approach to innovation. Sherden suggests empowering a group’s members, somewhat bounded by guiding principles. An open culture where information is shared offers an organizational climate that encourages the motivation to participate, and a sense of being an equal part of the group. To me, this sounds very similar to the way that the NMC determines their technology forecasts.

References

Christakis, A. The SDP Process

Follett, K. P. (2007). New agora: new geometry of languaging and new technology of democracy: the structured design dialogue process. Int. Journal of Applied Systemic Studies, Vol. 1

Sherden, W. A. (1998). Fortune Sellers

Vigdor Schreibman and Alexander N. Christakis
New Agora: New Geometry of Languaging And New Technology of Democracy: The Structured Design Dialogue Process




Tuesday, August 7, 2012


Exploring innovative ideas!


Exploring the possibilities of what can be is part of every child’s imagination. A child is not burdened with how we are supposed to do something. Yet, the older many of us get, the more we tend to be set in our ways. We can easily fall into the, ‘this is the way we always do this thing!’ This could be called a ‘rut’, the ‘only’ way of doing something that can limit our imagination, our creativity? Yet, the accumulation of our ever growing experiences could, and should, open the mind to ‘what ifs?’ Sometimes, technology makes happen what seemed impossible, possible!

Necessity is the mother of invention (The Phrase Finder, 2012B)

The English version comes from William Horman in 1519 (The Phrase Finder, 2012B), who is credited with 'Mater artium necessitas', roughly translated, ‘Necessity is the mother of invention’. Rather than the word ‘necessity’, perhaps we might say, a better idea, or an improvement, or a solution to a problem ‘at hand’. Examples of everyday innovation can be found in experienced mechanics, field engineers, or a mother building on past experiences. Their experience tells them that there are times when a need can only be resolved through whatever means they have available to improve the situation, to create, to innovate. So, how can we, together, explore innovative ideas?

Two heads are better than one (The Phrase Finder, 2012a)

Did you ever hear a parent telling their children, ‘if we work together, we can get things done a lot faster?’ Turns out, fostering a collaborative effort goes back a few millenniums! One resource, the Old Testament scripture, Ecclesiastes 4:9, essentially says, two or more people supply more brain power to getting things done.

Innovation that changes the way we live is about future possibilities. What can we do to develop the thought process for innovation? Certainly, drawing from more than one individual; bringing together different experiences and knowledge. Each draws upon the others’ input. Education applies project based learning to encourage learning through collaboration. The ‘hands-on’ approach, as well as, the exchange of ideas provides a better solution, adds to individual experience and broader knowledge, and can animate learning toward improved retention. The Buck Institute for Education offers some videos and research about project based learning. Below is one of their videos.

Project Based Learning



Project based learning in the classroom requires a collaborative effort that presents a glimpse into real-world projects. The result of the questions and responses of the group build on each other toward an accepted outcome. Project based learning is one method encouraging the development of a capability to innovate.

For real world problems, a need to build a better understanding, determining an optimum solution, or the generation of ideas to forecasting future trends and new technologies the Delphi method, or a modification of the classic Delphi method is a process developed in the 1950’s. The characteristics comparing the original Delphi Method with one modification is charted below.


Classical Delphi Method
Modified Nominal Group Technique
Origins



1950’s
1971

Estimation of military future needs
Consensus planning to prioritize



Characteristics



Anonymity
Anonymity

Iteration
Iteration

Controlled Feedback
Group generates issues/ideas

Analysis of Group
Phases: Large to small groups

Qualitative & Quantitative
Semi-Quantitative

Lit Review – Gap?
Review of subject area within boundary of that subject area
Membership
Area Expertise solicited
Participants of subject area

Open collaboration
Closed collaboration
Size
Practicality
Population of subject area



Works well Improving


      OR
Developing

·         Understanding of problems
·         Opportunities
·         Solutions
--------------------------------------------
·         Forecasts

·         Change management
·         Evaluation
·         Brainstorming
·         Prioritizing

Comparison of Characteristics/differences between Classical Delphi & Modified Nominal Group Technique (NGT) (Dobbie et al., 2004; Skulmoski et al., 2007)

While the anonymity and iterative approach remain, membership can be subject matter inclusive, or subject area matter inclusive. The classic Delphi covers a broader scope of subject. And, the modified approach is more specific, i.e. evaluation and prioritization versus seeking opportunities or forecasting.

Would the Classic Delphi method be more applicable than the modifies method for dissertation research?

Going back to the thought that ‘two heads are better than one’, and realizing that everyone builds  a unique experience and  knowledge base, a method closer the classic Delphi Method would be optimum for dissertation research. Drawing from the doctoral faculty, the recognized expertise in the field of interest, collaboration with other doctoral students offers a more complete picture of the specific area of research. The collaborative inputs provide, seeing through ‘many eyes’ the problem area.

  The Delphi Method is just one way to Innovation

Innovation is seeing something in a different way; seeing a connection, a novel idea. Innovation comes from the ever growing accumulation of knowledge and experience. Something a day ago, or a year, or possibly ten years before may not trigger an innovative idea until one moment in time a new experience is added to the individual's base of knowledge. Yet, many individuals never seem to innovate and except what is in existence. Sir Kenneth Robinson makes his case for the current educational system based on assessing factual knowledge and measurement methodology that focuses on remembering those facts. Creativity tends to be squashed in the traditional melee of grades and student comparisons, as opposed to working toward each person's success based on that student.s abilities. Creativity is the ability to uncover the possibilities based on understanding, application of knowledge, evaluations and comparisons based on that knowledge, and then draw from these learning skills to draw out the what if's!

Synergy produced through group efforts can produce far greater results. Thus, the collaborative structure of the Delphi method draws from the 'expert' inputs to build better understand and better ideas. Modifications of the Delphi method work within a defined family of 'experts', who can be students, to produce synergistic effects concentrating on a specific subject. The concept of project based learning in education and organizational learning tries to develop the value of collaborative arrangement. In some societies the individual takes center stage, which can be a challenge to proving the value of collaboration that makes the Delphi and Delphi-like systems work. 

The individual is a key to any collaboration, since each contribution provides a different insight into a problem or evaluation. Yet, look around! Is there anything that we use or have today that we accomplished by ourselves. Albert Einsteins spent years reading and correcting patents. Thomas Edison without Tesla may not have had the physical products to market, Steve Jobs certainly had a marketing genius, but not without the technical support of Apple. These men developed large experience bases, understood how to apply those experiences, and by evaluating possible needs they used their creativity to innovate!

In any method of collaboration there are forces that can dampen the outcomes. From an ethical perspective, the ideas and discussion must be original. Of course, there are ideas and concepts from the past that their time is now! Yet, these ideas must be integrated into today's environment. Also, are all the potential voices the can contribute available and brought into the circle of innovative discussions? The Internet provide an open format for many ideas and information. Without a form of peer review how valid is the data. Taking things out of contexts, possibly leaving a single piece of information can change the results. Just as in any qualitative and qualitative analyses, the boundaries, set by participants, or other limiting factors, the forecasts should be within the set of parameters that the analyses were focused on. This should not be a limitation in the forecast, since that forecast is based on knowledge and experience of today.

The strengths are social in nature. Collaborative discourse facilitated with a creation of an open format encourage maximum participation can bring about an optimal solution. The technological forces are strong in the emerging technologies that piggyback on one another and sprout new ideas, with innovations such as the multiple person touch surfaces and the :"Sixth Sense" innovation that brought the multiple touch surface to any surface. 


"What the mind of man can conceive and believe, It can achieve." Napolean Hill from Quote World.org


References:

Dobbie, A, Rhodes, M, Tysinger, J.W., and Freeman, J. (2004). Using a Modified Nominal Group Technique as a Curriculum Evaluation Tool, Core Concepts in Family Medicine Education, Vol. 36, No. 6

Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., and Jennifer Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi Method for Graduate Research, Journal of Information Technology Education, Vol. 6

The Phrase Finder (2012a)

The Phrase Finder (2012b)