Foretelling the Future … Can anyone really predict the future?
1926 -- “To
place a man in a multi-stage rocket and project him into the controlling
gravitational field of the moon where the passengers can make scientific
observations, perhaps land alive, and then return to earth – all that
constitutes a wild dream worthy of Jules Verne. I am bold enough to say that
such a man-made voyage will never occur regardless of all future advances”.
(Lee
de Forest - Search Quotes)
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| From Silent Film "Trip to the Moon" |
Based off Jules Vern science fiction, a trip to
the moon was a shot from a canon,
very similar to a rifle on a grand scale.
Of course stopping was a some what rough ride!
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| Neil Armstrong First Step on Moon |
In 1969 Neil Armstrong set foot on the moon
1936 -- "A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's
atmosphere." (Grace Murano)
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| White Sands First Successful Launch |
1957 -- "Space travel is bunk." (Quoted Prediction)
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| SPUTNIK |
----, Two weeks later, the Russian Sputnik went into orbit, October 4,
1957
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| APOLLO Launch |
De Forest passed away 30 June 1961 just two months after Alan Shepard
successfully ventured into space on a rocket.
… Perhaps, when making a prediction, one should never be absolute!
In 1987, James Gleick’s, Chaos:
Making a New Science, spoke
about the work of Benoit Mandelbrot in defining Fractal Geometry. A very visual
mathematician, Fractal Geometry is descriptive, not analytical by definition.
In the realm of complex mathematics, researchers found that fractals describe
system after system found in nature that previous confounded description due
their randomness. Each system had order to a certain point, at which time chaos
occurred. Amazingly, the nature of turbulence, the unpredictability of weather
and even the stock market’s rise and decline into fractal patterns. Before cell
phones, the wired telephone system, yes, for some they were connected to the
wall, had white noise that seemed inexplicable. Mandelbrot found that the white
noise, pure random signal, followed a fractal pattern.
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| Woolfram Math World - Generated Fractal |
What’s the point of all that fractal stuff?
Predicting, and forecasting, is only ordered to a point. In my studies
of statistics, predicting something outside the data sample is not valid!
Forecasting is going outside the sample space – the known world as it is today.
Outside the known world forecasters base there ‘guess’, usually an educated
guess on their knowledge base of the world around them. What they cannot see is
the future. In that future there are forces that can change in their favor or
take 42 years to set foot on the moon!
The force that ignited the forward thrust to putting a man on the moon was the inspiration of President Kennedy. His charisma set in motion financial, government, and social forces that, not only put a man on the moon, but a series of innovations for everyday life, such as Teflon and sticky notes.. Through the leadership of one man a structure was set up through the government, the financial means was provided plus contributions from corporate and academic innovations, and the social support open the doors of people ready to work long hours to see success to land
a man on the moon. The technological advances were the result of combining technology experts for a common goal. Their interaction with the experience of pilots and aircraft manufactures fine tunes the space program. Some times, the thought of long gone technical minds of the past, and the science fictions writers start the dream somewhere on the planet. Sometimes just a little push gets the competition trying harder!
The weaknesses of setting a man on the moon from a dream to reality was timing. The ideas were there, but the technology was not! The social beliefs of those time had a hard time excepting the earth was round! There certainly was not the financial or the technical know how to fly across the ocean without refueling until the mid 20th Century.
The weaknesses of setting a man on the moon from a dream to reality was timing. The ideas were there, but the technology was not! The social beliefs of those time had a hard time excepting the earth was round! There certainly was not the financial or the technical know how to fly across the ocean without refueling until the mid 20th Century.
James Gleick, Chaos: Making
a New Science
William A Sherden, The Fortune
Sellers
Search Quotes - Lee De Forest Quotes
http://www.searchquotes.com/search/Lee%20De%20Forest/
Grace Murano - 15 Failed Predictions about the Future - New York Times
Quoted Prediction - Web of Fate - Sir Harold Spencer Jones, 1957. http://weboffate.com/prediction/Space-travel-is-bunk/7317/
Sputnik – US Air Force Public Domain
Woolfram Math World - Generated Fractal
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Fractal.html
White Sands First Successful Launch
http://www.theurbn.com/2012/02/being-wrong-failed-predictions/
White Sands First Successful Launch
http://www.theurbn.com/2012/02/being-wrong-failed-predictions/
Images of launches and Man setting foot on moon from NASA
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/index.html
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/apollo/index.html
